Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 9/12/2025
The Arizona Diamondbacks will visit the Minnesota Twins on Friday night at Target Field. The Diamondbacks are fighting for their playoff lives coming into this weekend’s series in Minneapolis. They need to continue winning games if they are going to have a chance to catch up to the teams in front of them. Here, I break down the chances for both teams in this matchup and give you my Diamondbacks vs Twins prediction for Friday’s game.
Our Diamondbacks vs Twins Pick
- Pick: Twins Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 13, 2025, 8:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt vs Pablo Lopez
- Stadium: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Minnesota enters this game three games behind the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They could really use a series win here against the Twins, who are almost out of playoff contention themselves in the American League.
- Pablo Lopez is making just his second start since returning from a three-month injury absence. Lopez’s return is not enough to get them back into postseason contention. But Lopez finishing this season strong would be a huge benefit going into next season for Minnesota.
Pitching matchup
The Diamondbacks are going with Brandon Pfaadt to start this game on the mound. Pfaadt has had his share of struggles this year. He is 13-8 with a 5.18 ERA on the season. Pfaadt is giving up over a hit per inning this season and will need to keep the Twins off the bases to maximize his chances of putting the Diamondbacks in a position to win.
Pfaadt will be opposed by Pablo Lopez to begin this game. Lopez is 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA for the year. Lopez took a loss in his first start since returning from the IL. But he pitched well in that game by giving up just two earned runs in six innings.
Recent team streaks
- The Diamondbacks ended a three-game losing streak with a win in their last game against the Giants.
- The Twins have dropped two games in a row coming into tonight’s game.
Best Player Props
| Player | Market | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Ketel Marte, ARI | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Byron Buxton, MIN | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Pablo Lopez, MIN | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Brandon Pfaadt, ARI | Strikeouts | Under 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first game between these teams so far this season.
- The Twins are 18-24 in interleague competition for the year.
- Arizona is 23-22 in interleague play during the 2025 season.
Diamondbacks vs Twins Model Projection
Score Projection: Diamondbacks 5 — Twins 6
Win Probability: Diamondbacks 47%, Twins 53%
Final Thoughts
The Diamondbacks need wins desperately in order to keep themselves in the NL Wild Card race. But Pablo Lopez should present some challenges for the hitters of the Diamondbacks here. I think that Lopez will build on an encouraging return in his last start and that the Twins will get the win here.
