Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Odds – 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Frankie Montas - Brewers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On September 22, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. With the Brewers at 88-67 and the Diamondbacks at 87-68, both teams are having excellent seasons and are in the thick of the playoff race.

The Brewers have a slight edge according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, with a 53% chance of victory, compared to the betting market's implied probability of 52%. Milwaukee's offense ranks 9th best in MLB, excelling in batting average and stolen bases, while the Diamondbacks boast the top-ranked offense, with impressive power and a high batting average.

On the mound, Milwaukee sends out Frankie Montas, who holds an average ERA of 4.50 and has been steady throughout the season. Despite a high walk rate, he faces an Arizona lineup known for drawing walks, ranking 5th in MLB in this category. Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery will start for the D-Backs. He has struggled with an ERA of 6.23 but has been somewhat unlucky, as evidenced by his xFIP of 4.74.

William Contreras has been a standout performer for Milwaukee over the last week, hitting .412 with a 1.147 OPS, while Ketel Marte has been on fire for Arizona, boasting a .348 average and 1.299 OPS with three home runs in the same span.

With strong offenses and pitchers looking to capitalize on their strengths, this matchup is set up to be a closely fought contest. Keep an eye on how Montas and Montgomery handle these potent lineups, as their performances could be pivotal to the outcome.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (52.5% compared to 46.8% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

In comparison to his 91.1-mph average last year, Ketel Marte's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.8 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Arizona (#2-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Milwaukee Brewers has been 118.1 mph this year, ranking them as the #4 group of hitters in the game by this standard.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games at home (+7.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 114 games (+28.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.55 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.62

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