Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field on September 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of the National League playoff race. The Brewers, with an 88-64 record, are having a great season, while the Diamondbacks are also performing well at 84-68. This matchup, the first in the series, could be pivotal for both teams as they vie for postseason positioning.

On the mound, the Brewers are set to start Tobias Myers. Despite his respectable 3.07 ERA and an 8-5 record over 23 starts, Myers ranks 167th among MLB starting pitchers, hinting at potential overperformance. The Brewers' right-hander projects to go five innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, 4.5 hits, and 1.5 walks, with 4.7 strikeouts.

Opposing him is Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. Pfaadt, who ranks 84th among MLB starting pitchers, sports a 4.81 ERA but a more promising 3.74 xFIP, suggesting he's been unlucky this season. His projections for this game are slightly better, with 5.1 innings pitched, 2.5 earned runs, 4.9 hits, 1.3 walks, and 5.3 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the 1st best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 2nd best batting average and 4th best home run ranking. Meanwhile, the Brewers' offense is solid, ranking 8th overall, with notable strengths in batting average and stolen bases. Rhys Hoskins has been hot for Milwaukee, while Pavin Smith's recent performance for Arizona has been exceptional.

With the Brewers carrying a slight edge according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, which gives them a 53% win probability, this game projects to be tightly contested. The Diamondbacks' bullpen, ranked 1st, could play a significant role in containing Milwaukee’s lineup, but the Brewers' offense will look to exploit Pfaadt's struggles to tilt the game in their favor. Betting markets reflect the closeness of this contest, and fans can expect a thrilling matchup between two teams fighting for playoff aspirations.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's sinker usage has jumped by 12.2% from last year to this one (9.9% to 22.1%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Christian Walker has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 14.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen profiles as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 85.5-mph EV last season has dropped to 83.1-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jackson Chourio hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 87 of their last 151 games (+11.65 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 109 games (+27.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+17.90 Units / 47% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.8 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.22

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.