Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Roddery Munoz - Marlins

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

On August 21, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at LoanDepot Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Marlins, currently struggling with a record of 46-80, rank 29th in MLB in both overall offense and home runs, highlighting their difficulties at the plate this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks boast a strong record of 71-56, positioning them as one of the top teams in the league with the 2nd best offense overall.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks had a solid performance, which continues their positive momentum. Roddery Munoz is projected to take the mound for Miami, carrying a Win/Loss record of 2-7 and an alarming ERA of 5.88. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he may have been a bit unlucky this season, as his xFIP stands at 5.20, indicating potential for improvement. However, he is expected to pitch only 4.9 innings and allow around 2.9 earned runs, which does not inspire confidence against a potent D-Backs lineup.

Jordan Montgomery, the Diamondbacks' starter, has his own challenges, with a 6.25 ERA and a below-average strikeout rate. However, his projections indicate he may fare better than his current numbers suggest, as he’s expected to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs.

The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the potential for scoring, especially given the Marlins' offensive woes. With Miami being an underdog at +145, the Diamondbacks' strong offense and superior bullpen—ranked 3rd in MLB—make them the favorites in this matchup. As the Marlins look to turn their season around, they will need a standout performance against a team that is clearly in a better position to win.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery's 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.5-mph decline from last year's 92.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Joc Pederson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.7-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 92.5-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Tallying 14.8 outs per outing this year on average, Roddery Munoz checks in at the 17th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Xavier Edwards has been lucky this year, putting up a .378 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .302 — a .076 discrepancy.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cristian Pache, Jesus Sanchez, Derek Hill, Connor Norby).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 57 games at home (+20.55 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 94 games (+18.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 46 games (+12.75 Units / 17% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.16 vs Miami Marlins 4.3

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