Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds & Picks – 7/3/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 3, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristian Mena - D-Backs
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers, currently leading the pack in the National League West with a stellar 53-33 record, are set to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have struggled to a 41-44 record this season. This second game of the series at Dodger Stadium follows a closely contested matchup yesterday, which saw the Dodgers eke out a 6-5 victory, further cementing their dominance in the division.

Gavin Stone, the Dodgers’ projected starter, enters this game following a remarkable complete game shutout performance on June 26. With an impressive 2.73 ERA and a 9-2 record over 15 starts, Stone has been a reliable arm for Los Angeles. Despite his excellent ERA, his 4.02 xFIP suggests some regression could be on the horizon. Today, he’s expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs while striking out 4.3 batters.

On the other mound, Cristian Mena will start for the Diamondbacks. Mena has struggled mightily this season and is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league. He is slated to pitch just 4.5 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs. This could be a rough outing for Mena considering the Dodgers' potent offense, ranked 1st in MLB by advanced stats.

Offensively, the Dodgers are bolstered by Shohei Ohtani, who has been on fire lately, batting .316 with a 1.300 OPS and three home runs over his last five games. He leads the Dodgers with a .320 batting average, 27 home runs, and a 1.048 OPS this season. In contrast, Ketel Marte has been a bright spot for the Diamondbacks, hitting .287 with 17 home runs and a .871 OPS through 82 games.

The Dodgers' bullpen, ranked 8th, should provide solid support for Stone, while the Diamondbacks' bullpen, ranked 26th, has been a significant weakness. Given these factors, it’s no surprise that the Dodgers are a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -210 and an implied win probability of 65%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, supports this, giving the Dodgers a 62% win probability. Expect Los Angeles to capitalize on Mena's struggles and continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cristian Mena is projected to throw 78 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Ketel Marte has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 10.7% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Gavin Stone has been lucky this year, putting up a 2.73 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.26 — a 1.53 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cavan Biggio, Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+12.45 Units / 79% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.71 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.82

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