Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds & Picks – 7/2/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 2, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On July 2, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium for the first game of their National League West series. The Dodgers are enjoying an impressive season with a 52-33 record, placing them in a strong position within the division. In contrast, the Diamondbacks hold an average 41-43 record, reflecting a season of inconsistency.

The pitching matchup features Bobby Miller for the Dodgers and Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Though Miller's 6.75 ERA is alarming, his 4.01 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could see a turnaround. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Miller to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs on average. Despite his struggles, Miller ranks as the 73rd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 this season, indicating he has above-average potential.

On the other side, Nelson has a 5.69 ERA and a 4.66 xFIP, also indicating some bad luck. However, his projections are less promising, with an expectation of 5.0 innings pitched and 3.5 earned runs allowed. Nelson's struggles are compounded by facing the Dodgers' elite offense, which ranks 1st in overall talent, 4th in batting average, and 3rd in home runs.

The Dodgers' bullpen, ranked 8th best, further strengthens their position, especially against the Diamondbacks' bullpen, which ranks a dismal 27th. The Dodgers' offense, led by Chris Taylor over the past week, boasts a .444 batting average and a 1.389 OPS, while Ketel Marte has been the standout for the Diamondbacks with a .429 batting average and 1.396 OPS in his last six games.

Given the Dodgers' superior offense, bullpen, and Miller's potential for better performance, they enter the game as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -185 and an implied win probability of 63%. Conversely, the Diamondbacks, with a moneyline of +160, have an implied win probability of just 37%. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting an average scoring expectation. All signs point to the Dodgers capitalizing on their home-field advantage and continuing their strong season.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson has gone to his cutter 7.3% more often this year (22.1%) than he did last season (14.8%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

From last season to this one, Jake McCarthy's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 88.5 mph to 85.1 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Arizona has been the #30 offense in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (13.7% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Bobby Miller's 97.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1-mph drop off from last year's 98.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.286) provides evidence that Miguel Rojas has had some very good luck this year with his .341 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.20 Units / 48% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 74 games (+6.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.28 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.89

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.