Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 5/21/2025

On May 21, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium for the third game in their series. The Dodgers, currently holding a strong 30-19 record, are considered to be having a great season, while the Diamondbacks sit at 26-23, representing an above-average performance. In their previous matchup, the Dodgers emerged victorious, showcasing their potent offense.

The Dodgers offense ranks 1st in MLB, excelling both in batting average and home runs, and they’re poised to face Corbin Burnes, who boasts a solid 2.56 ERA this season. However, it's worth noting that Burnes has struggled with his control, reflected in an 11.6% walk rate that may give the patient Dodgers lineup an opportunity to capitalize. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks also feature a strong offense, ranking 3rd overall, but they will face a challenging matchup against Dustin May, projected to pitch for the Dodgers.

Dustin May, despite having a less than stellar 1-4 record, has underperformed according to his xFIP of 3.80, suggesting that he has been unlucky this season. With May's tendency for ground balls (53% this year), he could have an edge against the Diamondbacks' power-heavy attack, which has hit 67 home runs this season. However, while Burnes has been effective overall, his peripherals suggest he might regress as the season progresses.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Dodgers as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, it’s clear that oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair. The projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.78 runs for the Dodgers, signaling that they are likely to capitalize on Burnes' weaknesses today. Expect a competitive battle as these rivals continue their series.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Corbin Burnes has relied on his cut-fastball 8% more often this year (53%) than he did last season (45%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme groundball bats like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dustin May.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Dustin May was in good form in his previous GS and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Freddie Freeman has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.80 Units / 58% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.45 Units / 28% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.15, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.35

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Corbin Burnes - D-Backs
  • Dustin May - Dodgers

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