Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – 5/19/2025

On May 19, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a National League West matchup at Dodger Stadium. The stakes are heightened as both teams vie for position within a competitive division. The Dodgers currently sit at 29-18, enjoying a strong season and showcasing the best offense in MLB. In contrast, the Diamondbacks hold a record of 25-22, still performing above average but needing to elevate their play against top-tier teams.

The Dodgers will send Landon Knack to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 5.89 ERA over four starts. Though ranked as the 210th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced projections suggest he may be in line for better outcomes today due to a 3.74 xFIP, indicating some bad luck so far. However, Knack’s high walk rate (9.8 BB%) could be a glaring vulnerability against the Diamondbacks, who rank 2nd in MLB in drawing walks.

On the other side, Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt, boasting a more favorable 3.73 ERA and a commendable record of 6-3. Despite being labeled as an average pitcher in Power Rankings, Pfaadt’s low walk rate (6.0 BB%) may help him neutralize the Dodgers’ typically patient approach at the plate.

As the Dodgers have an implied team total of 5.09 runs, bettors may see value in backing them given their offensive prowess and superior season record. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, with a high implied total of 4.41 runs, will need a stellar showing from Pfaadt to contend effectively. With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, fans can expect an action-packed matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Arizona Diamondbacks offense projects to score the 3rd-most runs on the slate, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack's change-up rate has spiked by 8.7% from last year to this one (15.4% to 24.1%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Los Angeles Dodgers today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .343, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .354 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.55 Units / 16% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.35, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.66

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers

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