Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick & Preview – 7/4/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Details

• Date: July 4, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks are set to lock horns on July 4, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. This National League West clash has the Dodgers looking to extend their dominant season against the struggling Diamondbacks. With the Dodgers boasting a 53-33 record, they sit comfortably in the standings, while the Diamondbacks, at 41-44, find themselves needing a resurgence.

The pitching matchup for this game is intriguing, featuring Landon Knack for the Dodgers and Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Knack has had an interesting rookie season, posting an impressive 2.08 ERA through six starts. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests a regression is on the horizon with his 4.31 xFIP indicating he's benefited from some luck. Dodger fans should temper expectations for Knack, who is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs today.

On the other side, Gallen has been a stalwart for Arizona. With a 6-4 record and a stellar 2.83 ERA, Gallen has been among the elite, ranked 12th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Though his 3.73 xERA hints at some luck as well, Gallen's control—evidenced by a low 6.4% walk rate—could neutralize the Dodgers' patient approach at the plate. The Dodgers rank 2nd in drawing walks, but Gallen's ability to limit free passes might give him an edge.

Offensively, the Dodgers bring the best lineup in MLB, leading in overall talent and showcasing power with the 3rd-most home runs. Shohei Ohtani has been red-hot over the last week, hitting .294 with a 1.106 OPS, two home runs, and four runs scored. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks' offense, though 11th best overall, lacks the same firepower, ranking just 21st in home runs.

Given the current betting odds, the Dodgers' implied win probability is around 55%. Despite the challenge posed by Gallen, the Dodgers' superior offense and bullpen depth give them an edge in this matchup. Today's game total of 8.5 runs suggests an average scoring affair, but with the Dodgers' potent bats, fans could witness fireworks on Independence Day.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Over his last 3 GS, Zac Gallen has produced a notable increase in his fastball velocity: from 92.4 mph over the entire season to 93.6 mph in recent games.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Ketel Marte has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.3-mph average to last year's 91.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Joc Pederson pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue in the majors in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Andy Pages is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cavan Biggio, Andy Pages, Teoscar Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+10.55 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 away games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+13.75 Units / 92% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.97 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.79

Get daily MLB picks here.