Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Picks 7/24/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 24, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks are set to meet on July 24, 2024, for the third and final game of their interleague series at Kauffman Stadium. Both teams find themselves having different seasons, with the Royals boasting a 56-46 record and an above-average performance, while the Diamondbacks sit at 52-50, having an average season in comparison.

The Royals will send Michael Wacha to the mound. Wacha, ranked as the 77th best starting pitcher by advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been solid with a 3.55 ERA this year, though his 4.10 SIERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate so far. With a 7-6 record in 17 starts, Wacha is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, giving up 2.8 earned runs, 5.4 hits, and 1.7 walks while striking out 4.6 batters. His below-average strikeout projection might play into the Diamondbacks’ hands if they can take advantage of increased contact.

Ryne Nelson will be on the hill for the Diamondbacks. Nelson has struggled this season with a 4.78 ERA, though his 3.90 FIP indicates he's been a bit unlucky. Despite his identical 7-6 record in 18 starts, Nelson’s projections are less favorable, forecasting 5.4 innings pitched with 3.1 earned runs, 6.2 hits, and 1.2 walks allowed, alongside striking out 3.4 batters. These figures are particularly troubling given the Royals’ knack for low-strikeout, high-contact hitting, ranking 10th in team batting average.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been red-hot for the Royals lately, tallying 13 hits, 7 runs, 7 RBIs, and 2 home runs over the last five games with a phenomenal 0.684 batting average and a 1.977 OPS. Alek Thomas has been the standout for the Diamondbacks, hitting 0.364 with a 1.235 OPS over the past week.

Offensively, the Royals rank 13th overall, but these underlying talents place them in a good position against Nelson. Betting markets have Kansas City favored with a -130 moneyline, translating to a 54% implied win probability. The Diamondbacks, holding a +110 moneyline with a 46% implied win probability, will need to capitalize on any weaknesses from Wacha, given his peripheral stats.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Over the last 14 days, Christian Walker's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 15.3% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Adam Frazier can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Kansas City's 89.4-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the game: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.90 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.15 Units / 18% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.94 vs Kansas City Royals 5.09

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