Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction & Odds – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Justin Verlander - Astros

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 8, 2024, both teams are in the thick of a competitive stretch, with the Astros holding a 77-65 record and the Diamondbacks slightly ahead at 79-64. This game is pivotal as the Astros aim to solidify their standing in the Wild Card race. The teams faced off yesterday, with the Astros emerging victorious, which adds intensity to this matchup.

The Astros will send Justin Verlander to the mound, who has had an inconsistent season with a 3-5 record and a 4.52 ERA, placing him at #67 among MLB starters according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, Verlander projects to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing just 2.3 earned runs on average, which could bode well against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 2nd in MLB. The Astros' offense, while ranked 11th overall, excels with a team batting average that places them 2nd in the league this season, highlighting their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Ryne Nelson, the Diamondbacks' starter, boasts a better win-loss record at 10-6 and a respectable 4.15 ERA. However, his below-average strikeout rate and propensity to allow 5.7 hits per game could present an opening for the Astros to exploit. The matchup favors Houston, especially since they are facing a pitcher like Nelson, who has a low walk rate but may struggle against an Astros lineup that excels in contact hitting.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs and the Astros favored, the projections suggest a high implied team total of 4.31 runs for Houston. Given their strong offensive showing and Verlander's potential for a solid outing, the Astros could very well break through against the Diamondbacks and even the series.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson has averaged 92.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, grading out in the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, bats like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect weaker performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander has gone to his slider 6.9% less often this season (18.4%) than he did last year (25.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jeremy Pena has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Houston Astros batters collectively rank 25th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 86 games (+18.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 83 games (+29.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 43 games (+27.80 Units / 65% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.27 vs Houston Astros 4.82

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