Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Picks – 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks visit Coors Field to face the Colorado Rockies on September 17, 2024, the stakes are clear in this National League West matchup. The D-Backs, currently sitting at 83-67, are enjoying a strong season and are in contention for a playoff spot, while the Rockies, with a disappointing 58-93 record, are looking to finish their season on a high note. In their last matchup, the Diamondbacks were upset by the Rockies, who won in walk-off fashion.

On the mound, the Rockies will send out Ryan Feltner, who has struggled this season with a 2-10 record and an ERA of 4.89. His 4.13 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, but he still projects to allow 3.2 earned runs in about 4.6 innings, which does not bode well against a red-hot D-Backs offense. Conversely, Jordan Montgomery takes the hill for Arizona, boasting an 8-6 record. Despite a rough ERA of 6.25, his 4.74 xFIP indicates potential for improvement as he faces a Rockies lineup that has the 2nd highest strikeout rate in MLB.

The offensive matchup is decidedly lopsided, with Arizona leading the league as the 1st best offense and 2nd best in batting average. The Rockies, ranking 20th, are struggling to put runs on the board, underscoring the challenge they face. Hunter Goodman has emerged as the Rockies' best hitter recently, but the D-Backs' Randal Grichuk has been even more impressive, contributing 7 RBIs and a staggering 0.625 batting average in his last four games.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jordan Montgomery is projected to throw 72 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks as the best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Ryan Feltner will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brendan Rodgers is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Arizona (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to record the 3rd-most runs (5.72 on average) of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 56 games at home (+13.19 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 111 games (+29.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+11.00 Units / 16% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 6.61 vs Colorado Rockies 5.72

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