Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 6/20/2025

As the Arizona Diamondbacks make their way to Coors Field for a matchup against the Colorado Rockies on June 20, 2025, the stakes are clear. The Rockies' disappointing season has them languishing at 17-58, while the Diamondbacks sit at .500 with a record of 37-37. This game marks the beginning of a crucial series for both teams, though the Rockies have struggled significantly throughout the year.

In their last outing, the Diamondbacks got a win, showcasing their abilities offensively. Their offense ranks 3rd in MLB, and with 104 home runs, they have the potential to capitalize on the Rockies' pitching woes. Austin Gomber, projected to start for Colorado, has an impressive ERA of 0.00 this season in one appearance, but is not as effective as it seems, with a concerning xFIP of 4.39. Gomber's high flyball rate (54 FB%) could spell trouble against a powerful Diamondbacks lineup that thrives on home runs.

On the other side, Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona. Despite his 4-8 record and a less-than-stellar ERA of 5.19, Gallen's xFIP of 4.31 suggests he has been a bit unlucky this season. The projections indicate he will pitch an average of 5.3 innings while allowing around 3.4 earned runs, which could be enough to keep the Rockies in check, especially given their 26th ranked offense.

As the Rockies remain heavy underdogs with a moneyline of +160, the Diamondbacks are favored with a line of -185. The Game Total set at 12.0 runs speaks to the potential for scoring, but with Gomber's recent performance, it could be a showdown between a struggling Rockies offense and a D-Backs team that is poised to take full advantage.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's 92.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.2-mph drop off from last season's 93.8-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball hitters like Eugenio Suarez tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Austin Gomber.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #7 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Colorado Rockies project for the 2nd-most runs of all teams on the slate today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+12.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jordan Beck has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.80 Units / 40% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 7.19, Colorado Rockies 6.09

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

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