Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 6/22/2025

On June 22, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a crucial National League West matchup at Coors Field. The Rockies enter the game struggling with a record of 17-60, while the Diamondbacks stand at a more respectable 39-37. Despite their challenges, the Rockies showed some fight recently, but they have yet to turn that into consistent success this season.

Antonio Senzatela, who has been a disappointment with a 2-10 record and a horrendous ERA of 6.72, is projected to take the mound for Colorado. His power rankings place him as the 309th best starting pitcher out of about 350 in MLB, showcasing his struggles. Interestingly, Senzatela’s xFIP of 5.06 suggests that he has faced some bad luck, indicating a potential for improvement. However, he will be facing a potent Diamondbacks offense that ranks as the 2nd best in MLB, bolstered by their ability to hit home runs.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt is slated to pitch for Arizona. He boasts an 8-4 record and a 5.38 ERA, which is below average but has been better recently. Pfaadt’s projection indicates he could pitch 5.2 innings while allowing around 3.8 earned runs, an average performance in the current matchup. With the Rockies ranking 1st in MLB for strikeouts, Pfaadt may exploit this weakness effectively.

In terms of offensive firepower, the Rockies rank 26th, 27th, and 22nd in team batting average, runs, and home runs, respectively. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have been impressive, leading in several categories. With a very high game total set at 12.5 runs, bettors may find value in the Diamondbacks’ strong lineup against a struggling Senzatela. Despite the Rockies' current form, their implied team total of 5.21 runs suggests a potential for a surprising performance in this high-stakes game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #7 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Bats such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Antonio Senzatela who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.325 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .338 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Antonio Senzatela has been unlucky this year, notching a 6.72 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.23 — a 1.49 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Brenton Doyle is penciled in 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Colorado's 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in Major League Baseball: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 75 games (+10.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 61 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Pavin Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+7.30 Units / 104% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 7.39, Colorado Rockies 6.43

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies

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