Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Pick & Preview – 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be looking to maintain their momentum in the National League West as they visit the Colorado Rockies on September 18, 2024. Currently sitting a solid 2nd in the division with an impressive record of 83-68, the Diamondbacks are in contention for the playoffs, while the Rockies languish in last place at 59-93, marking a disappointing season.

In their previous game, the Rockies won 8-2 over a Diamondbacks team that fell short of their usual standards on Tuesday night. They will face Rockies' starter Austin Gomber, who has struggled this season, ranking as the 226th best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics. Gomber holds a 5-10 record with an average ERA of 4.44, but his expected ERA of 4.96 suggests he may have benefitted from some good luck thus far.

On the other side, Eduardo Rodriguez, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, ranks 76th among MLB starters. Although his ERA of 5.50 is concerning, his expected pitching metrics indicate he has been unfortunate, and he is likely to improve. Rodriguez can exploit the Rockies' high strikeout rate, as he projects to strike out 5.4 batters today, which could play to his advantage.

The Rockies' offense ranks 20th in MLB, and combined with Gomber's struggles, they are projected to score nearly 5 runs. However, the Diamondbacks, with an implied team total of 6.05 runs, look poised to outscore them. With the Diamondbacks' bats heating up and their bullpen ranked as the best in the league, they appear to have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez's 91.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 24th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jake McCarthy is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Colorado (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks as the best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Gomber to throw 80 pitches in today's game (3rd-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

In the past 14 days, Brendan Rodgers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Schunk in the 7th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 56 games at home (+13.24 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 110 games (+26.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 6.83 vs Colorado Rockies 5.44

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.