Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 9/16/2024

• Date: September 16, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Antonio Senzatela - Rockies

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Colorado Rockies on September 16, 2024, at Coors Field in the first game of their series. With the D-Backs currently holding a solid 83-66 record, they are right in the mix for postseason seeding, while the Rockies, at 57-93, are mired in the bottom of the standings.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start Merrill Kelly. Meanwhile, the Rockies will counter with Antonio Senzatela.

In terms of offensive performance, the Diamondbacks rank 2nd in MLB with a robust team batting average and 4th in home runs, showcasing a powerful lineup that's capable of racking up runs in a hurry. In contrast, the Rockies rank just 15th in batting average and 18th in home runs, indicating their offensive inconsistencies. Their best hitter over the last week, Hunter Goodman, has offered a glimmer of hope with a .294 batting average and 1.192 OPS, but it hasn’t been enough to lift the struggling squad overall.

Notably, Randal Grichuk has been an offensive spark for the D-Backs, boasting an impressive .625 average and 2.250 OPS in his last week of play. With the Game Total set at a high 11.0 runs, expectations are for a slugfest, although the Rockies are currently favored as underdogs with a moneyline of +140 and an implied team total of 4.90 runs. All signs point to an exciting matchup that could have significant implications for the D-Backs as they look to solidify their playoff positioning.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Merrill Kelly's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (66.3% compared to 57.8% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Colorado (#2-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to score the most runs (6.62 on average) of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In the past week, Brendan Rodgers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .300 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 58 games at home (+8.64 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 107 games (+28.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 50 games (+37.25 Units / 75% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.82 vs Colorado Rockies 4.90

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