Arizona Diamondbacks VS Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
• Umpire:
• Run Line: D-Backs -1.5 -120, Rockies 1.5 100
• Money Line: D-Backs -185, Rockies 160
• Total (Over/Under):11.5 100

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 63%
• Colorado Rockies - 37%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 58.46%
• Colorado Rockies - 41.54%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

On April 9, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field. This National League West matchup features two teams struggling this season. The Rockies hold a record of 3-8, while the Diamondbacks are slightly better at 4-7.

The Rockies will send Cal Quantrill to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has had a tough start to the season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Quantrill ranks as the #267 best starting pitcher in MLB. In his two starts this year, he has struggled, posting an ERA of 9.00. However, his 6.02 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

Opposing Quantrill will be Merrill Kelly, the Diamondbacks' right-handed pitcher. Kelly has been solid this season, with a record of 1-0 and an ERA of 1.98. Despite his strong performance, his 3.11 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could regress in future outings.

In their last game on April 8, the Rockies defeated the Diamondbacks by a score of 7-5. The Rockies were considered a big underdog, with a closing Moneyline price of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, were favored to win with a closing Moneyline price of -165 and an implied win probability of 61%.

Offensively, the Rockies rank as the 15th best team in MLB this season, while the Diamondbacks boast the 4th best offense. However, the Rockies have struggled in certain areas, ranking 24th in team home runs and dead last in stolen bases. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in the league.

When it comes to the pitching staff, the Rockies have the 7th best bullpen according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Diamondbacks rank 21st. This could give the Rockies an advantage late in the game.

Based on the current odds, the Diamondbacks are the favorites with a moneyline of -190 and an implied win probability of 63%. However, THE BAT X projects the Rockies to have a win probability that is 5% greater than the betting market suggests, making them an intriguing underdog to consider.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the struggling Rockies and the slightly better Diamondbacks. With Quantrill looking to bounce back and Kelly aiming to continue his strong performance, it could be a closely contested game. Will the Rockies pull off another upset, or will the Diamondbacks assert their dominance? Only time will tell.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Out of all SPs, Merrill Kelly's fastball velocity of 91.6 mph ranks in the 23rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Cal Quantrill projects to strikeout 2.8 bats today, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Brendan Rodgers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 5th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 68 games at home (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 128 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 away games (+9.40 Units / 33% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 6.33 vs Colorado Rockies 4.99

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