Arizona Diamondbacks VS Colorado Rockies Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies
• Run Line: D-Backs -1.5 -120, Rockies 1.5 100
• Money Line: D-Backs -175, Rockies 155
• Total (Over/Under):11 -110

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 62%
• Colorado Rockies - 38%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 60.85%
• Colorado Rockies - 39.15%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies Game Preview & Prediction

A National League West matchup is set to take place on April 8, 2024, as the Colorado Rockies, with a disappointing 2-8 record this season, host the struggling Arizona Diamondbacks, who currently hold a 4-6 record. The game will be played at Coors Field, where the Rockies aim to turn their season around.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Kyle Freeland, who has had a tough start to the season. Freeland has started two games with a win-loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 27.00, which is far from ideal. However, his peripheral indicator, 7.07 xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Freeland will be the Diamondbacks' right-handed pitcher Zac Gallen. Gallen has been a standout performer with a 2-0 record and an impressive 0.82 ERA. However, his 4.41 xFIP indicates that he has been fortunate and may regress in future outings.

The Rockies have struggled offensively this season, ranking 15th in MLB. Their team batting average sits at 18th, while they rank 24th in home runs and last in stolen bases. In contrast, the Diamondbacks boast the fourth-best offense in MLB, ranking 11th in batting average, 19th in home runs, and an impressive third in stolen bases.

Looking at the betting odds, the Rockies are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +150, implying a win probability of 39%. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are favored with a moneyline of -175, giving them a 61% win probability.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to league average, Zac Gallen has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an additional 6.7 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Corbin Carroll is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 8 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Freeland in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 7th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 70 games at home (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 83 away games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 6.48 vs Colorado Rockies 4.84

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