Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 6/8/2025

On June 8, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Great American Ball Park in a crucial National League matchup. The Reds are currently 32-33, while the Diamondbacks sit at 31-33, both teams hovering around the .500 mark. In their last game, the Reds managed to secure a victory against the Diamondbacks, marking a vital win in the series as they look to build momentum.

Cincinnati is projected to start Brady Singer, who has had an average season thus far with a 6-4 record and an ERA of 4.66. While Singer's power rankings suggest he is the 144th best starting pitcher in MLB, his struggles with control (9.6 BB% this year) could be problematic against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 5th in walks. The projections indicate he may allow 3.2 earned runs and 5.9 hits today, which are concerning figures against a lineup that has already hit 89 home runs this season.

On the other hand, Arizona will counter with Zac Gallen, who has been less consistent with a 4-7 record and a higher ERA of 5.13. However, his xFIP of 4.22 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season, indicating potential for improvement. Both pitchers are projected to pitch around 5.6 innings, but Gallen's ability to strike out 5.9 batters could be beneficial against a Reds offense that ranks 12th overall.

While Cincinnati's offense has shown signs of life, Arizona's lineup has been one of the best in MLB, ranking 3rd in home runs and 6th in batting average this season. The Reds may be slight underdogs with a moneyline of +120, but their home-field advantage and recent win could provide the spark they need to challenge Arizona's strong offense. With a game total set at 9.5 runs, fans can expect an entertaining matchup as both teams vie for crucial wins in this series.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brady Singer has gone to his slider 9.2% less often this season (36.3%) than he did last year (45.5%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Jake Fraley is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+11.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 53 games (+9.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+9.45 Units / 94% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.69, Cincinnati Reds 4.86

• Date: June 8, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Brady Singer - Reds

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