Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 6/6/2025

The Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off on June 6, 2025, in a pivotal National League matchup at Great American Ball Park. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Reds at 30-33 and the Diamondbacks at 31-31. The Reds are having a below-average season, while the Diamondbacks are performing at an average level. The stakes are heightened in this first game of the series, particularly as the Reds look to gain traction in the standings.

This season, the Reds haven’t found much consistent offensive rhythm. Contrarily, the Diamondbacks have displayed a more potent offense, ranking 4th in MLB. This offensive disparity is crucial as the Reds will send left-hander Nick Lodolo to the mound, who holds a solid ERA of 3.10 this season despite a higher xFIP at 3.91, suggesting he might have been a bit fortunate this year. Lodolo's low walk rate could provide him an edge against the Diamondbacks' patient lineup, which ranks 5th in walks.

On the other side, Arizona will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled mightily with a 7.05 ERA. His projections indicate that he may have faced some bad luck, but with just a 1-3 record in 9 starts, he’ll need a strong performance to keep the Reds' offense at bay.

With a high total set at 9.5 runs, oddsmakers seem to anticipate a competitive game—especially with both teams holding an implied run total of 4.75. As the Reds look to capitalize on Lodolo’s advantage and improve their standing, this match-up could be a turning point in their season.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Geraldo Perdomo has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup today (.325 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .337 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in Major League Baseball — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Will Benson has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year's 89.4-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+10.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 49% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.3, Cincinnati Reds 4.51

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

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