Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox Prediction – 6/24/2025

The Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 24, 2025, in the second game of a series. The Diamondbacks come into this matchup with a record of 40-38, while the White Sox are struggling significantly at 25-54. In their last game, the White Sox were shut out by the Diamondbacks, who won decisively with a score of 10-0.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start Mike Vasil, a right-handed pitcher who has had a challenging season. Although his ERA stands at an impressive 2.94, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for regression, as his xFIP is 5.01. Vasil's recent performance has not been encouraging, as he was hit hard in his last outing on June 19, allowing 6 earned runs over just 4 innings. The Diamondbacks, known for their potent offense, rank 3rd in MLB, making this matchup particularly tough for Vasil.

Ryne Nelson, also a right-handed pitcher for the Diamondbacks, has been more consistent this season, with a 3.88 ERA and a solid outing in his last game, where he allowed just 1 earned run over 6 innings. While both pitchers are low-strikeout types, Nelson’s ability to handle high-strikeout offenses like the White Sox gives him a clear advantage in this matchup.

The Diamondbacks' offense has been thriving, boasting a team batting average that ranks 7th in MLB, while the White Sox offense has struggled, ranking dead last in multiple categories, including batting average and overall offensive output. With the Diamondbacks favored in this matchup and the projections favoring their continued success, they appear poised to capitalize on the White Sox's struggles once again.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (62.7 vs. 56% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Extreme flyball hitters like Ildemaro Vargas generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jordan Leasure.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Mike Vasil was in good form in his last start and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Josh Rojas has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 5.7% rate last year has fallen off to 0% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago White Sox have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luis Robert Jr., Kyle Teel, Michael A. Taylor, Ryan Noda).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+8.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 57 games (+15.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.60 Units / 89% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.83, Chicago White Sox 4.25

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Mike Vasil - White Sox

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