Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 6/25/2025

On June 25, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Guaranteed Rate Field for the third game of their interleague series. The White Sox, struggling this season with a record of 25-55, recently experienced a rough outing, while the Diamondbacks have been performing well with a record of 41-38. In their last game, the Diamondbacks took the win, further showcasing their above-average play.

Sean Burke is projected to start for the White Sox, and he currently ranks as the 280th best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his struggles this season. Burke's projections indicate he will average 5.1 innings pitched, allowing 2.8 earned runs, but his strikeout rate of 3.9 is concerning. In contrast, Zac Gallen will take the mound for the Diamondbacks, boasting a much more favorable ranking as the 78th best starter. Gallen’s projections show he will pitch 5.5 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs, while striking out an average of 5.4 batters.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, the Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -140, while the White Sox sit at +120 as underdogs. Given the current form and pitching matchup, the Diamondbacks appear to be in a strong position to continue their success against a struggling White Sox lineup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #3 HR venue among all parks — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Alek Thomas has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph dropping to 80.3-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.2% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes them the #9 offense in MLB this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Burke in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball bats like Miguel Vargas usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Zac Gallen.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mike Tauchman has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+13.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games (+14.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+3.10 Units / 60% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.82, Chicago White Sox 4.1

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Sean Burke - White Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.