Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Preview – 7/19/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 19, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field on July 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack in the National League. The Cubs, with a record of 47-51, are having a below-average season, while the Diamondbacks sit slightly above at 49-48, reflecting an average season. This game kicks off a series that could be pivotal for both teams as they seek to improve their standings.

On the mound, the Cubs will start left-hander Justin Steele, who has been impressive this season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Steele is ranked as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting an excellent 2.71 ERA over 14 starts. However, his 3.61 xFIP suggests he might have been somewhat fortunate and could regress. Steele is projected to pitch 5.9 innings, allow 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 4.9 batters on average today.

Opposing him will be Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Nelson, a right-handed pitcher, has had a mixed season with a 4.98 ERA over 17 starts. His 4.47 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. The projections have him pitching 5.3 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 4.3 batters on average today.

Offensively, the Cubs have been average this season, ranking 17th overall, but they struggle in key areas like batting average (22nd) and home runs (20th). Their strength lies in their patience at the plate, ranking 5th in walks. However, facing Nelson, who has good control, might limit their ability to exploit this strength.

The Diamondbacks have a more potent offense, ranking 10th overall and 6th in batting average. They are average in home runs (16th) and stolen bases (18th), making them a balanced threat. Their patience at the plate, ranking 6th in walks, could be tested by Steele’s excellent control.

Bullpen performance could be a deciding factor in this closely matched game. The Cubs' bullpen ranks 29th, one of the worst in MLB, whereas the Diamondbacks' bullpen is average, ranked 14th.

Both teams are evenly matched according to the betting markets, with the moneyline set at -110 for each, implying a 50% win probability for both sides. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, expect a tight, competitive outing at Wrigley Field.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Randal Grichuk has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 11.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 25.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Arizona's 89-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the game: #10 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele has tallied 18.5 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 97th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Michael Busch has strong power (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryne Nelson doesn't generate many whiffs (17th percentile K%) — great news for Busch.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games (+15.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+8.05 Units / 112% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.18 vs Chicago Cubs 4.66

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