Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Odds – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On August 23, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Fenway Park for the first game of an interleague series. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Red Sox sitting at 67-59, while the Diamondbacks boast a record of 72-56. The Red Sox are projected to start Brayan Bello, who comes off a solid outing where he pitched six innings, allowing just one earned run against the Houston Astros on August 21.

Bello, ranked as the 66th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a decent season with an 11-5 record and a 4.80 ERA. While his ERA suggests he’s been below average, his 3.74 xFIP indicates he may have been somewhat unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. In contrast, Ryne Nelson, the D-Backs' starter, has a respectable 4.35 ERA, but he is considered a below-average pitcher overall. Nelson’s recent performance also shows promise, as he limited the Miami Marlins to one earned run in six innings.

The Red Sox’s offense ranks 3rd in MLB, highlighted by their powerful lineup which has produced the 4th best batting average and 7th most home runs. Jarren Duran has been a standout this season, leading the team with a .293 batting average and an impressive OPS of .867. In contrast, the D-Backs rank 4th in offense, but their power numbers are average, placing 16th in home runs.

Betting markets currently favor the Red Sox with a moneyline of -135 and a high implied team total of 5.02 runs. With both teams showcasing strong lineups, this matchup promises to be an exciting contest.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Out of all starters, Ryne Nelson's fastball velocity of 94.5 mph grades out in the 75th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Arizona Diamondbacks today carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .330 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a significant edge over flyball bats, Brayan Bello and his 51% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in this matchup going up against 3 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tyler O'Neill's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 90.9-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 76-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #5 team in baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 81 games (+20.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 84 games (+19.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.87 vs Boston Red Sox 5.16

Get daily MLB picks here.