Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 25, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in a tightly contested matchup. The Red Sox, currently sitting at 67-61, are having an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks boast a strong record of 74-56, marking them as a competitive force this year.

In their last game, the Red Sox fell short, marking a challenging moment as they look to bounce back. This game will be the third in the series, and the stakes are high for both teams. Tanner Houck is projected to start for the Red Sox, and while he has been solid with a 3.01 ERA this season, his underlying numbers suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as indicated by his 3.96 xERA. In contrast, Merrill Kelly, who has a 3-0 record this year, is regarded as an average pitcher but will face a potent Red Sox offense that ranks 4th best in MLB.

The projections favor the Red Sox, who have an impressive implied team total of 5.02 runs. Their offensive prowess is complemented by a strong batting average and a solid lineup, with Jarren Duran leading the charge over the last week. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, despite ranking 2nd in overall offense, have a more balanced approach with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. shining recently.

With the Red Sox's bullpen rated 15th and the Diamondbacks' at 2nd, the game promises to be a thrilling contest. The high Game Total of 9.5 runs indicates that both offenses are expected to make an impact, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal game for both squads.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Recording 94.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Merrill Kelly ranks in the 87th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (68.4% vs. 60.5% last year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

David Hamilton has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 77.1-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 57 games (+16.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 95 games (+22.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 50 games (+24.60 Units / 49% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.57 vs Boston Red Sox 5.27

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.