Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 6/3/2025

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 3, 2025, both teams find themselves in a similar predicament, struggling with below-average records of 27-31 and 28-31, respectively. This matchup kicks off a series that could be pivotal for both clubs as they look to turn their seasons around.

In their last outing, the Braves' Spencer Strider faced challenges, yet he remains a highly regarded pitcher, ranked as the 16th best starter in MLB according to advanced metrics. Strider has struggled with a 0-3 record this season, but his 3.98 SIERA suggests he may have been unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings and allow about 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up fly balls (43% FB rate) could be problematic against the D-Backs, who rank 4th in MLB with 80 home runs.

On the other hand, Zac Gallen, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has had a tough year, with a 3-7 record and an ERA of 5.54. However, his 4.31 xFIP suggests he may also be due for a turnaround. Gallen's projections indicate he will pitch 5.5 innings, allowing around 3 earned runs, but he, too, struggles with hits and walks.

Offensively, the Braves rank 16th in MLB, while the Diamondbacks boast the 4th best lineup, making this an intriguing clash of strengths and weaknesses. The Braves have a high implied team total of 4.85 runs, which may offer them an edge if their hitters can capitalize on Gallen's inconsistencies. With both teams looking to gain momentum, this matchup promises to be a compelling watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

With a 1.41 deviation between Zac Gallen's 5.53 ERA and his 4.12 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and ought to perform better in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Eugenio Suarez are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Strider.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Today, Eugenio Suarez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.6% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Strider's 94.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 75th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Alex Verdugo is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Atlanta Braves projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+10.70 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.42, Atlanta Braves 4.82

• Date: June 3, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Spencer Strider - Braves

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