Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 6/5/2025

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 5, 2025, at Truist Park, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this critical National League matchup. Currently, the Braves sit at 27-33, struggling through a below-average season, while the Diamondbacks are slightly ahead at 30-31, showcasing an average performance thus far. In their last game, the Braves fell to the Diamondbacks, which adds an extra layer of urgency to this contest.

Atlanta will send Grant Holmes to the mound, who has had a mixed season, holding a Win/Loss record of 3-4 with a solid ERA of 3.78. However, his 4.66 FIP suggests some underlying issues, indicating he might be due for a tougher outing. Holmes has been effective as a high-groundball pitcher, which could play to his advantage against a powerful Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th in MLB with 84 home runs this season.

On the other hand, Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, who has a record of 7-4 but has struggled with a higher ERA of 5.05. The projections suggest he may be poised for improvement, given that his xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. Both pitchers are expected to pitch around five and a half innings, but Pfaadt's tendency to allow runs could be a concern.

Offensively, the Braves rank 16th in the league, while the Diamondbacks boast a much stronger 4th place ranking. This disparity may heavily influence the game, especially considering the Braves' struggles with runs scored. The Braves are favored with a moneyline of -140, indicating confidence in their ability to turn things around, particularly with their best hitter showing solid performance lately.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors might find value in the Braves overcoming their recent slump and leveraging their home-field advantage against an Arizona team that, while strong, may have vulnerabilities in pitching. This game promises to be an exciting showdown as both teams seek to improve their standings.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (92.8 mph) below where it was last year (93.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Atlanta's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a unit rank among the elite in the league this year (8th-) as far as their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grant Holmes has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 3.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alex Verdugo is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 59 games (+10.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 49 games (+12.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+7.75 Units / 23% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.55, Atlanta Braves 5.08

• Date: June 5, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

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