Arizona Diamondbacks VS Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Chris Sale - Braves
• Run Line: D-Backs 1.5 -110, Braves -1.5 -110
• Money Line: D-Backs 180, Braves -210
• Total (Over/Under):9 100

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 35%
• Atlanta Braves - 65%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 33.46%
• Atlanta Braves - 66.54%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup scheduled for April 7, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 5-2, are having a great season so far, while the struggling Diamondbacks hold a 4-5 record.

The Braves are projected to start their elite left-handed pitcher, Chris Sale, who has been impressive this year with a 3.38 ERA. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his 9.24 xERA and 4.81 FIP, suggest that he may have been lucky and could regress going forward. Sale is known for his high strikeout rate and is expected to strike out 6.4 batters on average in this game. Nevertheless, he may face a challenge against the Diamondbacks, who have shown the ability to limit strikeouts as one of the MLB's least strikeout-prone teams.

On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are projected to start Ryne Nelson, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled with a 13.50 ERA this season. However, his 10.84 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could improve in future outings. Nelson has a low strikeout rate and is expected to face a Braves offense that ranks as one of the best in MLB, with a high team batting average and the most home runs in the league.

In their last game on April 6, the Braves defeated the Diamondbacks by a score of 9-8, with the Braves entering as heavy favorites. Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves' standout hitter this season, contributing with 10 RBIs and 4 home runs. Meanwhile, Ketel Marte has been the Diamondbacks' top performer, boasting a .368 batting average and a 1.093 OPS.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Braves are favored to win this game with a projected win probability of 67%. However, it's important to note that the Diamondbacks have a chance to defy the odds, as projections are not always definitive. The Braves' potent offense and strong bullpen, ranked fourth-best in MLB, could give them an advantage in this matchup.

With a current moneyline of -205, the Braves are a significant betting favorite, implying a 65% win probability. In contrast, the Diamondbacks are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +180, suggesting a 35% chance of winning.

The game total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring game. THE BAT X projects the Braves to score an average of 5.45 runs, while the Diamondbacks are projected to score 4.00 runs on average.

As the Braves look to continue their success, the Diamondbacks will aim to turn their season around. With Sale on the mound for the Braves and Nelson seeking a bounce-back performance, this game promises an exciting battle between two teams with different trajectories early in the season.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ryne Nelson in the 17th percentile when it comes to his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Projected catcher Gabriel Moreno profiles as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Orlando Arcia generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryne Nelson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 58 games (+13.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 128 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 4 vs Atlanta Braves 5.45

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