Arizona Diamondbacks VS Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 04/06/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 6, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Max Fried - Braves
• Run Line: D-Backs 1.5 -110, Braves -1.5 -110
• Money Line: D-Backs 185, Braves -220
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 34%
• Atlanta Braves - 66%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 32.71%
• Atlanta Braves - 67.29%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

On April 6, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Truist Park. This National League matchup features the Braves as the home team and the Diamondbacks as the away team.

The Braves are having a great season with a record of 4-2, while the Diamondbacks are having an average season with a record of 4-4. The Braves offense has been impressive, ranking as the #3 best in MLB, boasting the highest team batting average and home run total in the league. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks offense ranks as the #2 best in MLB, excelling in stolen bases.

The Braves are projected to start left-handed pitcher Max Fried, who is considered the #2 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Fried has had some tough luck this season, reflected in his high ERA of 40.50. However, his xFIP suggests that he is likely to perform better going forward.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who is considered a below-average pitcher by MLB standards. Pfaadt has had a solid start to the season with an ERA of 1.80, but his xFIP suggests that he may regress in his performance.

In terms of the matchup, Fried, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a Diamondbacks offense that has the third fewest strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving Arizona an advantage. Conversely, Pfaadt, a high-strikeout pitcher, will face a Braves offense that has the sixth fewest strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving Atlanta an advantage.

The Braves have a strong bullpen, ranking as the #4 best in MLB, while the Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the #19 best. This could give the Braves an edge in the later innings of the game.

According to the current odds, the Braves are the favorites to win this game with a moneyline of -220, implying a win probability of 66%. The Diamondbacks are the underdogs with a moneyline of +185 and an implied win probability of 34%.

Based on the projections, the Braves have a high implied team total of 5.32 runs, while the Diamondbacks have a lower implied team total of 3.68 runs.

As the Braves and Diamondbacks take the field, it will be an intriguing matchup between the Braves' potent offense and the Diamondbacks' strong lineup. With the Braves' home-field advantage and their overall performance this season, they have a good chance of coming out on top in this game. However, anything can happen in baseball, so fans can expect an exciting contest between these two teams.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Joc Pederson is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Gabriel Moreno, the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Max Fried to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 58 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.87 vs Atlanta Braves 5.35

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