Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Jeffrey Springs - Rays

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The matchup on August 17, 2024, between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Arizona Diamondbacks carries significant weight, as the Rays are currently sitting at 60-61, an average season by their standards. In contrast, the Diamondbacks are thriving with a 69-54 record, marking them as one of the stronger teams in the league this year. But the Rays won the first game of this series, something the Diamondbacks will look to bounce back from on Saturday.

On the mound, the Rays are projected to start Jeffrey Springs, who comes into this game with a 0-1 record and a 4.61 ERA. Springs has had an average season, and while his 6.03 FIP suggests some luck has been involved in his performance, he has the capacity to pitch competitively. He projects to go about 5.4 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, although he will need to address his below-average strikeout rate of 4.9 strikeouts per game.

Zac Gallen, on the other hand, will be starting for the Diamondbacks. With a 3.69 ERA and a 9-5 record, Gallen has established himself as a top-tier pitcher, ranking 31st among MLB starters. He is projected to pitch 6.0 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs as well, but with a higher strikeout projection of 6.8, he should keep the Rays’ struggling offense at bay.

The Rays offense ranks 25th in the league, struggling with consistency and power, while the Diamondbacks boast the 2nd best offense overall, showcasing their strong batting average and ability to create runs. Despite the close odds, Tampa Bay’s strong bullpen, ranked 5th in MLB, could provide some leverage if the game stays tight. With the current total set at a low 7.5 runs, this game appears poised to be a pitching duel, heavily favoring the performance of Gallen and the D-Backs’ lineup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Zac Gallen has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 5.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 80.5-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Jeffrey Springs in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Siri has experienced some negative variance this year. His .279 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .326.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 64 of their last 104 games (+21.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 59 games (+18.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.48 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.52

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