Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 16, 2024, both teams are looking to make a statement. The Rays, currently sitting at 59-61, have had an average season and are not in contention for a playoff spot. In contrast, the Diamondbacks boast a solid 69-53 record, positioning them well in the postseason race. This matchup marks the first of the series, and with both teams eager to gain an edge, it promises to be an intriguing contest.

The Rays are projected to start Ryan Pepiot, who has shown himself to be a competent option this year, ranking as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Pepiot has a Win/Loss record of 6-5 and an ERA of 3.92, indicating he has been effective on the mound. However, he has struggled with allowing 3.8 hits on average, which could be a concern against a potent Diamondbacks offense, ranked 2nd overall in the league. Meanwhile, Ryne Nelson will take the mound for Arizona. While he has an average ERA of 4.51, his 3.65 FIP suggests he may be due for a better performance.

Offensively, the Rays have underperformed, ranking 25th in MLB, which could be crucial against a Diamondbacks bullpen that ranks 2nd overall. Tampa Bay's best hitter over the last week, Jose Caballero, has been solid with a .333 batting average and 1.046 OPS. However, the Diamondbacks' Jake McCarthy has been on fire, hitting .440 with 12 RBIs over the same stretch.

With both teams sharing a moneyline of -110, betting markets anticipate a close game. Given the disparity in offensive production and the strength of the Diamondbacks' bullpen, they may have the edge heading into this matchup. The Game Total is set at an average of 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive showdown.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's high utilization rate of his fastball (54.7% this year) is likely dampening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In the last week's worth of games, Jose Siri's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 15.3% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Josh Lowe, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Siri).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 64 of their last 105 games (+20.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 66 games (+19.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.25 Units / 27% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.59 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.04

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