Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays Best Bet – 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 18, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in a tight playoff race. The Rays, currently sitting at 61-61, are having an average season, while the Diamondbacks boast a solid 69-55 record, positioning themselves well in the postseason picture.

In their last matchup, the Rays won 6-1, and there’s been talk about whether they can follow up on that performance against a strong D-Backs squad. Drew Rasmussen is projected to take the mound for Tampa Bay, despite having a rough season thus far, with a 5.40 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as indicated by his 1.68 xFIP, which hints at potential improvement. On the other hand, Merrill Kelly is set to start for Arizona, bringing an impressive 2.43 ERA and a perfect 3-0 record this year.

The matchup features a stark contrast in offensive production, with the Rays ranking 25th in MLB offensive metrics, while the Diamondbacks are 3rd best. This disparity is crucial, as Tampa Bay's lack of power, with only 97 home runs this season, could be neutralized by Kelly’s groundball-heavy approach.

Interestingly, projections indicate that the Rays may have a better chance of winning than the betting markets suggest, with their potential to score around 3.88 runs in this game. Given the stakes and the current dynamics, this matchup promises to be a compelling one for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

In his last start, Merrill Kelly wasn't on when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to post 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen projects as the 3rd-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Despite technically being the "starter" today, Drew Rasmussen may not last more than a couple framess since he will function as more of an opener.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Christopher Morel has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 11.5% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 69 of their last 113 games (+21.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 65 games (+17.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.01 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.92

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