Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction For 4/24/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
• Run Line: D-Backs -1.5 140, Cardinals 1.5 -160
• Money Line: D-Backs -120, Cardinals 100
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 52%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 44.07%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 55.93%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 24, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Busch Stadium. This National League matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams. The Cardinals, with a record of 10-14, are having a tough season, while the Diamondbacks, with a record of 12-13, are performing below average.

The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson, who has started four games this year. Gibson holds a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 5.04, which is not impressive. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gibson is ranked as the #202 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him one of the worst in the league.

On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery has started one game this year and has an impressive win/loss record of 1-0 and an ERA of 1.50. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Montgomery is ranked as the #88 best starting pitcher in MLB, making him above average.

In terms of offense, the Cardinals rank as the #26 best team in MLB this season, while the Diamondbacks rank as the #6 best team. However, the Cardinals have a higher team batting average, ranking #7 in MLB, and rank #5 in team home runs. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, excel in stolen bases, ranking #3 in MLB.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Cardinals have the #1 best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Diamondbacks rank #25. This could potentially give the Cardinals an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Cardinals have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs, while the Diamondbacks have an average implied team total of 4.10 runs. The game total for today's match is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery has averaged 17.7 outs per outing since the start of last season, checking in at the 91st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

In the past 14 days, Joc Pederson has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .434.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson has utilized his cut-fastball 7.6% more often this season (24.2%) than he did last year (16.6%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.22 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 100 games (+12.85 Units / 12% ROI)

D-Backs vs Cardinals Prediction: D-Backs 3.97 - Cardinals 4.24

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