Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals Pick For 4/23/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tommy Henry - D-Backs
  • Steven Matz - Cardinals
• Run Line: D-Backs -1.5 (+160), Cardinals +1.5 (-192)
• Money Line: D-Backs -105, Cardinals -115
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 51.22%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 53.49%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 40.81%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 59.19%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

A National League matchup is set to take place on April 23, 2024, as the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Busch Stadium. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Cardinals holding a 10-13 record and the D-Backs sitting at 11-13. This game will be the second in the series between these two teams.

The Cardinals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Steven Matz, who has had a decent season so far. Matz has started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 3.60. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could face some challenges going forward. On the other hand, the D-Backs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tommy Henry, whose performance has been less impressive. Henry has a 0-1 record with an ERA of 6.87, but his xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could see improvement in his performance.

In terms of offense, the Cardinals rank 26th in MLB, while the D-Backs rank 6th. The Cardinals have showcased their power, ranking 5th in team home runs, but their overall offensive performance has been lacking. The D-Backs, on the other hand, have been solid in terms of batting average and stolen bases, ranking 11th and 3rd respectively.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Cardinals have the top-ranked bullpen in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the D-Backs are ranked 24th. This could give the Cardinals an advantage late in the game.

Overall, the Cardinals and D-Backs are both looking to improve their records and turn their seasons around. With Steven Matz taking the mound for the Cardinals and Tommy Henry for the D-Backs, it will be interesting to see how the two left-handed pitchers fare against their respective opponents. The Cardinals will rely on the power of their offense, but they will need to overcome the solid D-Backs' pitching and base-stealing abilities.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

This year, Tommy Henry has introduced a new pitch to his arsenal (a sinker), mixing it in on 20.8% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, although sinkers are generally one of the least effective pitches.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

• Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Today, Corbin Carroll is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35% rate (85th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.87 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 138 games (+12.80 Units / 9% ROI)

D-Backs vs Cardinals Prediction: D-Backs 4.29 - Cardinals 4.95

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