Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 4/19/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs
  • Blake Snell - Giants
• Run Line: D-Backs 1.5 -195, Giants -1.5 165
• Money Line: D-Backs 110, Giants -130
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 46%
• San Francisco Giants - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 42.95%
• San Francisco Giants - 57.05%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

On April 19, 2024, the San Francisco Giants will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park. The Giants will be the home team in this National League West matchup. Both teams have had below-average seasons so far, with identical 9-11 records.

The Giants are projected to start left-handed pitcher Blake Snell, who has had a tough start to the season. Snell has a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 12.86, which is considered to be horrible. However, his 3.40 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future. Snell is a high-strikeout pitcher, but he will face a Diamondbacks offense that ranks as the third-lowest in strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving them an advantage.

The Diamondbacks will counter with left-handed pitcher Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery has been performing above average this season, ranking as the 75th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his projected stats for this game indicate that he may struggle, with a lower innings pitched projection and higher hits and walks projection.

The Giants' offense ranks as average in MLB, with the 19th best overall ranking. Their team batting average is below average at 21st, but they rank 19th in home runs. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks' offense has been performing well, ranking 8th overall in MLB. They have a balanced offense, ranking 11th in batting average, 19th in home runs, and 3rd in stolen bases.

When it comes to bullpens, the Giants have the advantage, ranking as the second-best bullpen in MLB, while the Diamondbacks rank 17th. This could be a crucial factor in determining the outcome of the game.

According to the current odds, the Giants are favored to win with a moneyline set at -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Diamondbacks have a moneyline set at +110, implying a 46% win probability. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses heading into this game. The Giants will rely on Snell's potential to bounce back, while the Diamondbacks will look to their strong offense. With the Giants having the home-field advantage, this is expected to be a close and intriguing matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Because of his reverse platoon split, Jordan Montgomery figures to be at an advantage facing 8 bats in the projected lineup of the opposite hand today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This season, there has been a decline in Corbin Carroll's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.05 ft/sec last year to 29.41 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Gabriel Moreno (the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell's 2429.8-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 86th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Matt Chapman has been unlucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 18.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 31.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 86 games (+24.27 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 124 games (+12.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Wilmer Flores has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 69% ROI)

D-Backs vs Giants Prediction: D-Backs 4.01 - Giants 4.39

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.