Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 9/5/2024

• Date: September 5, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Blake Snell - Giants

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants host the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 5, 2024, fans should be prepared for a pivotal matchup in the National League West. The Giants are currently 68-71, struggling to find consistency this season. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are enjoying a strong campaign with a record of 78-61, showcasing one of the league's top offenses, ranking 2nd in MLB overall.

In their previous game, the Diamondbacks powered past the Giants, adding pressure on the home side as they seek redemption. This contest marks the third game in the series between these two teams, and with Blake Snell on the mound for the Giants, expectations are mixed. Snell, a left-handed pitcher, has had an up-and-down season, currently holding a 2-3 record and a solid ERA of 3.56. Advanced projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this year and is likely to perform better, projecting an average outing of 5.6 innings with 2.1 earned runs allowed. However, he must improve on allowing 4.4 hits and 2.3 walks, which are troubling stats.

Opposing him is Merrill Kelly, who has been effective, boasting a 4-0 record this year, but his 4.30 ERA hints at a potential regression as his advanced metrics suggest he’s been somewhat lucky. Kelly’s projections align closely with Snell’s, as he’s expected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs.

Offensively, the Giants rank 21st in MLB, a stark contrast to the Diamondbacks’ thriving lineup, which ranks 2nd overall. Mike Yastrzemski has been the Giants' best hitter of late, and he’ll need to step up if they hope to counter the offensive firepower of Randal Grichuk, who has enjoyed a blistering week.

With a game total set at 7.5 runs and the Giants favored at -150, this matchup encapsulates a classic power versus struggle dynamic as both teams vie for crucial wins in the final stretch of the season.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Merrill Kelly has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Corbin Carroll has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 95.6-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Blake Snell has utilized his curveball 7.6% more often this year (27.4%) than he did last season (19.8%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Mike Yastrzemski is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Heliot Ramos has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+5.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 101 games (+28.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 40 games (+11.80 Units / 28% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.39 vs San Francisco Giants 4.24

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