Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction – 4/21/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
• Run Line: D-Backs 1.5 -220, Giants -1.5 190
• Money Line: D-Backs -110, Giants -110
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 50%
• San Francisco Giants - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Arizona Diamondbacks - 42.04%
• San Francisco Giants - 57.96%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League West matchup, the San Francisco Giants will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Oracle Park on April 21, 2024. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with identical 10-12 records.

The Giants are scheduled to start right-handed pitcher Jordan Hicks, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Hicks is ranked as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started four games this year and holds an impressive 2-0 win/loss record with an excellent ERA of 1.57. However, his 3.71 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will send right-handed pitcher Merrill Kelly to the mound. Kelly is ranked as the 44th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. He has also started four games this season, boasting a 2-0 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.19. Like Hicks, his xFIP of 3.60 indicates that he may regress in future performances.

The Giants offense is considered average, ranking 17th in MLB overall. However, their team batting average is low, ranking 21st in the league. They rank 19th in home runs and a dismal 29th in stolen bases. Conversely, the Diamondbacks have a stronger offense, ranking 10th in MLB. They have an average team batting average, ranking 11th, and an average ranking of 19th in home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in the league.

Looking at the odds, both teams have an implied win probability of 50% with a moneyline set at -110. This suggests that the betting markets expect a close game with low-scoring potential. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Based on these factors, the Giants and Diamondbacks appear evenly matched. The Giants will rely on the strong performance of Jordan Hicks, while the Diamondbacks will look to Merrill Kelly to continue his solid pitching. With both offenses having their strengths, the game could be decided by the performance of the bullpens. It's a game that could go either way, making it an intriguing matchup to watch.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Merrill Kelly was on point in his previous GS and allowed 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Cracking 2 HRs in the last week's worth of games, Joc Pederson has been on fire in recent games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Given that flyball pitchers hold a substantial advantage over flyball batters, Jordan Hicks and his 53.2% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot today matching up with 2 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Jung Hoo Lee is projected as the 7th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 75 of their last 120 games (+25.57 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 126 games (+11.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)

D-Backs vs Giants Prediction: D-Backs 3.93 - Giants 4.37

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