Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Pick & Prediction – 6/6/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 6, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Slade Cecconi - D-Backs
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League West matchup, the San Diego Padres are set to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park on June 6, 2024. The Padres, with a record of 32-33, are having an average season, while the Diamondbacks, with a record of 29-33, are having a below-average season.

The Padres, as the home team, will be looking to capitalize on their offensive prowess. Currently ranked 9th in MLB, their offense has been performing well, especially in terms of home runs and stolen bases, where they rank 10th and 7th respectively. However, their team batting average ranks 20th, indicating room for improvement in that aspect.

On the pitching side, the Padres are projected to start Randy Vasquez, a right-handed pitcher. Vasquez has had a challenging season with a 1-3 win/loss record and an ERA of 5.74, which is considered below average. However, his 4.25 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Vasquez is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.2 batters, and giving up 5.0 hits and 1.6 walks on average.

The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, will send Slade Cecconi, also a right-handed pitcher, to the mound. Cecconi has struggled this season with a 1-4 win/loss record and an ERA of 5.59. Like Vasquez, his xFIP of 4.89 indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future performances. Cecconi is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, striking out 3.3 batters, and giving up 5.4 hits and 1.1 walks on average.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Padres have the advantage, ranking 8th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Diamondbacks rank 19th. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

With the Padres being the home team and having a slightly better record and offensive ranking, they are considered the favorites according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, with a projected win probability of 56%. The Diamondbacks, however, are not to be underestimated, as they have the potential to perform better than their implied win probability of 46%.

Both teams will be relying on their key hitters to make an impact. For the Padres, the standout player this season has been Fernando Tatis Jr., who has been on fire over the last 7 games. In the same timeframe, Ketel Marte has been the best hitter for the Diamondbacks.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting clash between two division rivals. The Padres will look to capitalize on their offensive strengths, while the Diamondbacks aim to overcome their below-average season and pull off an upset. With the pitching matchup and team statistics considered, the Padres have the edge, but anything can happen in baseball.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Corbin Carroll's footspeed has declined this season. His 30.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.29 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Pavin Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez has recorded 13.3 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 9th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive skill to be a .313, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .082 deviation between that mark and his actual .395 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Luis Campusano (the Padres's expected catcher in today's matchup) projects as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.20 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 59 games (+4.85 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 away games (+12.50 Units / 83% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.42 vs San Diego Padres 4.78

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