Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Best Bet – 6/7/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: June 7, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On June 7, 2024, the San Diego Padres will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. As a National League West matchup, both teams will be looking to secure a victory.

The Padres, with a season record of 32-33, are having an average season so far. They will be playing as the home team, enjoying the advantage of their home field. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have a record of 29-33, indicating a below-average season. As the away team, they will be aiming to overcome the Padres' home advantage.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael King, who is ranked as the #46 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. King has started 12 games this year, with a win/loss record of 4-4 and an ERA of 3.82. However, his 4.58 FIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may not perform as well going forward.

Opposing King will be right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks. Pfaadt is ranked as the #70 best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started 12 games this season, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 4.32. However, his 3.57 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in future games.

In terms of offensive performance, the Padres rank as the #10 best team in MLB, showcasing their talent and ability. However, their team batting average ranks at #20, indicating a need for improvement in that area. They excel in home runs (#10) and stolen bases (#7), which could pose a challenge for the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks' offense ranks as the #11 best team in MLB, showcasing their average performance this season. Their team batting average also ranks at #11, indicating consistency in that aspect. They excel in stolen bases (#3), which could be a strength against the Padres.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Padres rank as the #8 best team according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Diamondbacks rank at #21, suggesting a potential advantage for the Padres in the later innings.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The Padres are slight favorites with a moneyline of -120, giving them a 52% implied win probability. The Diamondbacks have a moneyline of +100, with a 48% implied win probability.

With the Padres having the advantage of playing at home, a strong starting pitcher in Michael King, and a solid offensive ranking, they have a favorable position going into this game. However, the Diamondbacks' above-average starting pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt, and their prowess in stolen bases could make this a competitive matchup.

As both teams take the field, the outcome of this game will be determined by their performance on the day. Baseball is a game of uncertainties, and anything can happen. Fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see which team comes out on top in this National League West showdown.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt has relied on his sinker 9.6% more often this season (19.5%) than he did last season (9.9%).

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Corbin Carroll has been unlucky this year, notching a .253 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .081 gap.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Pavin Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King's 91.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.7-mph decline from last year's 93.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

David Peralta is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Luis Campusano, the Padres's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+10.10 Units / 253% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.16 vs San Diego Padres 4.38

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.