Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick For 8/2/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On August 2, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at PNC Park in what marks the opening game of their series. Both teams are positioned in the National League, with the Pirates currently holding a record of 55-53, while the Diamondbacks sit at 58-51. Despite the Pirates' average play this season, they have struggled, particularly with their offense, which ranks as the 28th best in MLB. In contrast, the Diamondbacks boast a top-tier offense, ranking 5th overall, showcasing their ability to score runs consistently.

Luis Ortiz is projected to take the mound for the Pirates. He has had a decent season with a Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.75. However, Ortiz's xFIP of 4.40 suggests he may have been fortunate and could struggle going forward. He projects to average only 4.9 innings pitched today, with a concerning projection of 3.0 earned runs allowed. On the other hand, Brandon Pfaadt will start for the Diamondbacks. With a record of 5-6 and a solid 3.92 ERA, Pfaadt has been a reliable presence in the rotation, projecting to pitch an average of 5.2 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs.

The Pirates are banking on Ortiz to defy projections against a strong Diamondbacks lineup. Meanwhile, the betting markets favor the Diamondbacks with a moneyline of -135, suggesting a closer game than their records might indicate. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors should watch for how each pitcher performs, especially considering Ortiz’s recent challenges compared to Pfaadt’s steadiness.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Generating 18 outs per GS this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt ranks in the 91st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Ketel Marte has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.8-mph to 101.1-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Ortiz has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5% more often this season (52.2%) than he did last year (47.2%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Oneil Cruz has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 25.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly deflated relative to his 36.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Today, Andrew McCutchen is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.6% rate (78th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+10.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 76 games (+14.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.35 Units / 37% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.4 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.49

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