Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets Pick & Prediction – 6/2/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Jose Quintana - Mets

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On June 2, 2024, the New York Mets will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field. The Mets, who are currently having a terrible season with a record of 24-34, will be playing as the home team. The Diamondbacks, also struggling this season with a record of 26-32, will be the away team. This National League matchup promises an interesting battle between the two teams.

The Mets are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jose Quintana, who has had a challenging season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Quintana is ranked as the #197 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are expected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who has been performing above average this season, ranking as the #78 best starting pitcher.

In their last game, the Mets faced the Diamondbacks and unfortunately lost by a score of 10-5. The Mets had a closing Moneyline price of -125, indicating that the game was expected to be close. Similarly, the Diamondbacks had a closing Moneyline price of +105, suggesting a tight matchup.

The Mets offense ranks as the 19th best in MLB this season, while the Diamondbacks offense ranks slightly higher at 14th. However, the Mets have struggled with their batting average, ranking 24th in the league, while the Diamondbacks have a better ranking at 11th. Both teams have shown average performance in terms of home runs and stolen bases.

Looking at the pitching matchup, Quintana has started 11 games this year with a win/loss record of 1-5 and an ERA of 5.06. However, his 4.49 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Pfaadt, on the other hand, has started 11 games with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 4.16. His 3.65 xFIP also indicates that he has been slightly unlucky and could improve in future outings.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a close game with a slight edge for the Diamondbacks, giving them a win probability of 51% compared to the Mets' 49%. The current moneyline odds also indicate a close matchup, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%.

Based on the current odds, the Mets have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, while the Diamondbacks have the same average implied team total. THE BAT X projects the Mets to score 4.11 runs on average, while the Diamondbacks are projected to score 4.40 runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Because groundball hitters have a notable edge over flyball pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt and his 39.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot today squaring off against 0 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

This year, there has been a decline in Corbin Carroll's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.05 ft/sec last year to 29.3 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 8 opposite-handed hitters today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball hitters like Starling Marte generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jose Quintana has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 65% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6 vs New York Mets 4.29

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