Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction For 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks face off on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in pivotal positions as the regular season winds down. The Brewers currently hold an 88-66 record, while the Diamondbacks are close behind at 86-68. This matchup at American Family Field is the third in the series, and with both teams having strong seasons, every game counts as they jockey for postseason positioning in the National League.

The Brewers' offense, ranked 9th overall, will look to capitalize on their recent form, particularly with William Contreras, who has been on fire over the last week with a .429 batting average and a 1.310 OPS. Meanwhile, Randal Grichuk has been a standout performer for the Diamondbacks, posting a .455 batting average and a 1.682 OPS in his last five games.

On the mound, Milwaukee's Aaron Civale, a below-average pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is set to start. Civale's 4.48 ERA is considered average, yet his tendency to allow flyballs could be a liability against Arizona's potent lineup, which ranks 5th in home runs. On the flip side, Arizona's Merrill Kelly, an average pitcher by the same rankings, brings a solid 4-0 record and a 4.00 ERA to the table, although his peripheral stats suggest potential regression.

The Brewers' bullpen, ranked 9th, will be tested by the Diamondbacks' league-leading offense, which boasts the 1st overall ranking and a 2nd-best team batting average. Meanwhile, Arizona's top-ranked bullpen will look to stifle Milwaukee's 8th-ranked team batting average.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge with a 52% win probability, suggesting a close contest. With both teams equally poised in the betting markets, this game promises to be a thrilling encounter as these playoff contenders clash.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In the past week, Joc Pederson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be best to expect worse results for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Civale to throw 85 pitches in today's game (6th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Sal Frelick's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 85.5-mph figure last season has decreased to 83.1-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 79 of their last 154 games (+8.40 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 99 games (+30.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 43 games (+9.65 Units / 22% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.58 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.31

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