Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins Prediction For 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Miami Marlins on August 20, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 70-56, enjoying a solid season, while the Marlins struggle with a record of 46-79, marking a disappointing year. Despite their struggles, the Marlins are looking to rebuild momentum after their last game, where they fell short against the Diamondbacks.

On the mound, the Marlins will send out Edward Cabrera, who has had an inconsistent season with a 2-4 record and a troubling 5.76 ERA. However, his 3.96 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve. Cabrera projects to pitch approximately 5.1 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, which could be beneficial against a potent Diamondbacks offense that ranks 4th best in MLB.

Eduardo Rodriguez, starting for the Diamondbacks, boasts a 1-0 record but also carries a 5.06 ERA. His projections indicate he will pitch around 5.5 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs. Rodriguez's ability to limit walks (6.7 BB%) could play a crucial role against a Marlins lineup that ranks as the worst in terms of drawing walks.

From an offensive perspective, the Marlins rank 29th in MLB, while the Diamondbacks are 4th, showcasing a significant disparity. Jonah Bride has been the Marlins' best hitter over the past week, hitting .318 with a .907 OPS. In contrast, Joc Pederson has been on fire for the Diamondbacks, showcasing a .400 batting average and a 1.425 OPS over the same stretch.

With the game total set at 7.5 runs, the Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline of -150, while the Marlins sit at +130. Given their current form, the Diamondbacks appear to have the upper hand, but the Marlins will look to capitalize on any mistakes.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez has recorded 17.5 outs per outing since the start of last season, checking in at the 91st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today, Joc Pederson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.5% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (68.8% vs. 63.1% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jake Burger has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 92.1-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Jesus Sanchez, Derek Hill, David Hensley).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 59 games at home (+22.50 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 89 games (+19.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.55 Units / 40% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.22 vs Miami Marlins 3.84

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.