Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins Pick & Prediction – 8/19/2024

• Date: August 19, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Adam Oller - Marlins

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks visit LoanDepot Park to face the Miami Marlins on August 19, 2024, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Marlins, sitting at a disappointing 46-78, have struggled throughout the season, while the Diamondbacks boast a solid 69-56 record, positioning them as one of the stronger teams in the league.

Despite being big underdogs, the Marlins recently pulled off a surprising victory against the New York Mets, winning 3-2 in their last game on August 18. However, the Diamondbacks are coming off a narrow 8-7 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, which could add pressure as they look to bounce back.

The pitching matchup features Adam Oller for the Marlins and Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. Oller has had a tough time this season, projecting to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs over 5.1 innings, and his recent form hasn't been encouraging. In his last start, he was hit hard, allowing 7 earned runs in just 2 innings back in April. On the other hand, Pfaadt, ranked 58th among pitchers in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, is expected to deliver a solid performance, projecting to allow 2.3 earned runs over 5.6 innings. His underlying metrics suggest he’s been unlucky and could provide even better results moving forward.

While the Marlins’ offense ranks 29th in the league, their best hitter, Jake Burger, has shown some life recently, adding to the intrigue of this matchup. The projections indicate that the Marlins could surprise, suggesting a potential value in betting on them despite their low implied team total of 3.33 runs. The Diamondbacks, with a high-powered offense ranked 4th in MLB, are expected to score around 4.99 runs, making this an intriguing contest for bettors looking to capitalize on the odds.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's sinker usage has spiked by 11.7% from last season to this one (9.9% to 21.6%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Joc Pederson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.6-mph to 96.8-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected offense today (.313 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .329 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.307) implies that Kyle Stowers has had some very poor luck this year with his .225 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 63 games at home (+26.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 69 games (+17.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 35 games (+12.75 Units / 36% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.99 vs Miami Marlins 3.82

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