Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals Prediction For 7/22/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 22, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yilber Diaz - D-Backs
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 22, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Royals, with a solid 55-45 record, are having a good season, while the Diamondbacks, at 51-49, are experiencing an average year. This interleague matchup is the first game of their series.

Kansas City will send left-handed ace Cole Ragans to the mound. Ragans, ranked #15 among approximately 350 starting pitchers in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been elite this season. Despite a 6-6 win-loss record, his impressive 3.16 ERA across 20 starts reflects his dominance. However, the projections suggest that Ragans might face some challenges today, with an expected 5.6 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs allowed, 5.3 hits, and 1.9 walks. Nonetheless, his average strikeout projection of 5.7 batters per game keeps him competitive.

Arizona counters with right-hander Yilber Diaz, who, despite an excellent 1.50 ERA, has been labeled one of the worst pitchers in MLB by the same advanced-stat Power Rankings. Diaz's ERA may be misleading, as his xFIP of 4.36 suggests luck has played a significant role in his performance. With just two starts this year, Diaz is projected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 4.9 hits, and 1.7 walks, while striking out only 3.7 batters.

Offensively, the Royals rank 16th in MLB, with notable strengths in batting average (11th) and stolen bases (7th). The Diamondbacks boast a stronger lineup, ranking 9th overall, 6th in batting average, and 16th in home runs. Given that Diaz is a low-strikeout pitcher (15.6 K%) facing a Royals offense that strikes out the second least in MLB, Kansas City may find success at the plate. Additionally, Diaz's low walk rate (6.7 BB%) matches up against a Royals lineup that is third least in drawing walks, potentially giving Kansas City an edge.

With the Royals favored at -150 and an implied win probability of 58%, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on their home-field advantage. The Diamondbacks, as underdogs with a +130 moneyline and a 42% implied win probability, will need their offense to step up against Ragans. The Game Total sits at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive yet average-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Corbin Carroll has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a unit have been among the best in baseball this year (9th-) when assessing their 89-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Over his last 3 GS, Cole Ragans has suffered a notable fall off in his fastball velocity: from 95.2 mph over the entire season to 93.9 mph in recent games.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Adam Frazier may have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.20 Units / 42% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.53 vs Kansas City Royals 5.05

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