Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On September 7, 2024, the Houston Astros will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Minute Maid Park in a critical Interleague matchup. The Astros have had an above-average season with a record of 76-65, while the Diamondbacks are enjoying a solid campaign at 79-63. Both teams are looking to secure their positions as the regular season winds down, making this series increasingly significant.

In their last outing, the Astros faced the Diamondbacks, and Houston shut out Arizona in that interleague matchup. The Astros are looking for a strong performance by Yusei Kikuchi, who has been reliable despite a 7-9 record this season. Kikuchi's ERA stands at 4.24, and he projects to pitch about 5.3 innings today, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs. His advanced-stat Power Rankings position him as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating above-average performance.

On the other side, Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound for Arizona. He has had a rough season with a 5.33 ERA and only five starts, but the projections suggest he may turn a corner. Rodriguez is known for his low-walk approach, which could be tested against the Astros' disciplined lineup that ranks 2nd in batting average and 11th in overall offensive performance.

With the Astros ranked 15th in bullpen effectiveness and the Diamondbacks' bullpen sitting at 3rd, Houston may face challenges if the game goes to the late innings. The Astros are currently favored to win, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities led by players like Yordan Alvarez, who has been on a tear with 8 RBIs over the last week.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez has used his change-up 5.6% more often this year (24.5%) than he did last year (18.9%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Adrian Del Castillo has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 13.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Among all starters, Yusei Kikuchi's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 82nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Victor Caratini has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 91.8-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 105 games (+15.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 103 games (+28.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.72 vs Houston Astros 5.05

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