Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians Pick For 8/6/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: August 6, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On August 6, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second game of their series at Progressive Field. Following a closely contested battle on August 5, where the Guardians fell to the Diamondbacks by a score of 7-6, both teams will be looking to establish momentum in this pivotal matchup. Despite the loss, the Guardians hold a solid record of 67-45 this season, positioning themselves well above .500 and continuing to feature one of the better bullpens in MLB, currently ranked 6th.

Ben Lively is projected to take the mound for the Guardians, sporting a 10-6 record and a commendable ERA of 3.42. However, his xFIP of 4.34 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year. Lively's ability to keep earned runs down will be crucial against a dangerous Diamondbacks offense that ranks 6th overall in MLB. Arizona counters with Eduardo Rodriguez, who, despite his 58th ranking among starting pitchers, has proven to be an effective lefty with a strong last outing—allowing just 1 earned run in 7 innings on August 1.

While the Guardians have shown an average offensive performance overall, they do boast standout players like Jose Ramirez, who continues to lead the team and was instrumental in the previous game. The projections suggest a slight edge to the Diamondbacks, who are hitting the ball well, led by the impressive Ketel Marte.

As both teams vie for a crucial win, expect a competitive contest, with the Guardians needing to bounce back after a tight loss and capitalize on their home-field advantage. With game totals set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets indicate a close battle in store.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Given his reverse platoon split, Eduardo Rodriguez will hold the advantage going up against 6 bats in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in this outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Herrera (the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's game) is considered to be a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the strongest out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan's true offensive talent to be a .311, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .069 gap between that figure and his actual .380 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+14.35 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games (+16.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+8.20 Units / 10% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.26 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.09

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