Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 7/21/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On July 21, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field in the third game of their series. The Cubs, with a 47-53 record, are having a below-average season, while the Diamondbacks, at 51-48, are enjoying an above-average campaign. This National League matchup pits two teams with contrasting fortunes, but both are looking to gain momentum.

The Cubs will send Shota Imanaga to the mound. Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher, has been solid this year with an 8-2 record and a stellar 2.97 ERA. However, his 3.76 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate and could regress. On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, a right-handed pitcher. Pfaadt has a 4-6 record and a respectable 3.97 ERA, but his 3.38 xERA indicates he has been somewhat unlucky and might perform better moving forward.

The Cubs' offense ranks 17th in MLB, but their team batting average and home run totals are both in the bottom third, at 22nd and 20th, respectively. They do, however, excel in stolen bases, ranking 10th. The Diamondbacks boast the 9th best offense, with a strong 6th place ranking in team batting average and an average ranking of 16th in home runs.

The Cubs' bullpen has been a significant weakness, ranking 28th in the Power Rankings, while the Diamondbacks' bullpen stands at a more respectable 14th. This disparity could play a pivotal role as the game progresses.

Both starting pitchers are known for their control, with Imanaga's 4.0 BB% and Pfaadt's 5.6 BB% facing off against patient offenses that rank 6th and 5th in drawing walks, respectively. This dynamic may neutralize one of the strengths of each offense, giving the pitchers an edge.

The betting markets have the Cubs as slight favorites with a -130 moneyline, implying a 54% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a 51% chance to win, suggesting potential value in betting on Arizona. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair.

With the Cubs' projected to score 4.08 runs and the Diamondbacks 4.46 runs, this game promises to be closely contested, with Arizona holding a slight edge according to the projections.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Tallying 17.9 outs per start this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places in the 89th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Typically, batters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 8 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Shota Imanaga will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mike Tauchman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games at home (+11.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 14 games at home (+10.00 Units / 71% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.41 vs Chicago Cubs 4.04

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