Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs Best Bet – 7/20/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Wrigley Field on July 20, 2024, in the second game of their series. The Cubs, with a 47-52 record, are enduring a below-average season, while the Diamondbacks' 50-48 record suggests a more middle-of-the-road performance. The Cubs lost the opener on July 19, falling 5-2 to the Diamondbacks, despite being the favored team with a closing Moneyline price of -145.

On the mound, the Cubs will start Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled this year with a 2-7 record and a 6.78 ERA. However, his 4.34 xFIP indicates he might have been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Hendricks’s recent form offers some hope, as he pitched seven scoreless innings in his last start on July 12. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs on average, which aligns with his season metrics.

The Diamondbacks counter with Zac Gallen, who sports a solid 6-5 record and a 3.87 ERA. Despite a rough outing on July 14, where he allowed six earned runs in just four innings, Gallen remains a reliable arm. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.5 earned runs today. His excellent control (6.7 BB%) could neutralize the Cubs' patient offense, which ranks 5th in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 17th in MLB, with standout performances from Ian Happ and recent hot streaks from Christopher Morel, who has been their best hitter over the last week. However, their team batting average (22nd) and home run tally (20th) are less impressive.

The Diamondbacks boast the 10th-best offense, highlighted by Ketel Marte’s strong season. They rank 6th in team batting average, which could pose a challenge for Hendricks. Additionally, their bullpen, ranked 14th, is more reliable than the Cubs', which sits at 28th.

Betting markets favor the Diamondbacks with a Moneyline of -135, implying a 55% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, concurs, giving Arizona a 56% chance of winning. The Cubs are priced at +115, with a 45% implied win probability, and the projections see them scoring 4.18 runs on average, compared to the Diamondbacks' 5.02. This matchup leans towards Arizona, given their superior pitching and offensive metrics.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has used his slider 5.7% more often this year (9.1%) than he did last year (3.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Eugenio Suarez has a ton of pop (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks doesn't generate many whiffs (18th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Arizona Diamondbacks bats as a unit rank among the best in the majors this year (10th-) in regard to their 89-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Among all SPs, Kyle Hendricks's fastball velocity of 87.2 mph grades out in the 0th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Miles Mastrobuoni may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 5.03 vs Chicago Cubs 4.19

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