Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On August 24, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in an intriguing Interleague matchup at Fenway Park. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Red Sox sitting at 67-60, while the Diamondbacks boast a record of 73-56. This makes for a compelling clash as the Red Sox look to improve their standing in a tightly contested playoff race.

In their most recent game, the Red Sox struggled against the Diamondbacks, falling short in a high-scoring contest. As they come back home, they will rely on Kutter Crawford, who is projected to start. Crawford has had an up-and-down season with an 8-10 record and a 4.21 ERA, ranking him 67th among starting pitchers, indicating he is above average. However, his 4.76 FIP suggests he may have benefitted from good fortune this season. Crawford’s average projection of 4.9 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed today indicates a potential for a challenging outing, especially considering he allows an alarming 4.7 hits per game.

Meanwhile, Zac Gallen will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. With a 9-6 record and a solid 3.85 ERA, Gallen ranks 40th among MLB starters. His FIP of 3.34 hints at some misfortune this year, suggesting he could perform better moving forward. Gallen’s projections of 5.6 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed show he can handle the pressure well.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 3rd in MLB, backed by a potent lineup. Jarren Duran has been particularly hot, batting .333 with a 1.116 OPS over the last week. This offense should put pressure on Gallen, despite the Diamondbacks having the 2nd best lineup in the league. THE BAT X projects the Red Sox to score 4.78 runs, while the Diamondbacks are forecasted at 4.81.

With both teams having equal moneyline odds at -110, the matchup is expected to be tight. However, with the Red Sox's high-powered offense and home-field advantage, they may just edge out the Diamondbacks in what promises to be an exciting game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen's slider utilization has risen by 5.3% from last season to this one (3.4% to 8.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Arizona Diamondbacks in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .313, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all starters, Kutter Crawford's fastball spin rate of 2499 rpm ranks in the 92nd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Tyler O'Neill has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .368 rate is a good deal higher than his .324 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #5 group of hitters in baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 69 games (+20.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 70 games (+20.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 44% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.86 vs Boston Red Sox 4.93

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